# Case evidence and data readiness

Revision: 17 October 2026. Scope: the three fixed competition settings. Illustrative computations are enabled; the original operational evidence gate remains blocked.

| Input family | C1 Dewanbir | C2 Gudri | C3 Sonua four villages | Reuse and remaining gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place identity | Selected village name; historical candidate 376846 | Selected Gudri setting; distinguish block from village candidate 376987 | Dewanbir, Kankoa, Baika, Sarjamhatu | Official indexed Census metadata adds identity leads. Direct catalog/PDF fetch failed and original village population table was not verified. No current facility assignment established. |
| Supply source | SOURCE_DEMO_01 | SOURCE_DEMO_01 | SOURCE_DEMO_01 | Synthetic in all cases. District health overview is context, not evidence of current stock, cold-chain readiness or assigned villages. |
| Frozen demand | 53 PENTA_DEMO + 17 MR_DEMO = 70 obligations | 50 VACCINE_DEMO | 50/60/70/80 = 260 VACCINE_DEMO | Reuse unchanged as a synthetic reference. Historical 80-dose C1 and aggregate population/coverage are not substituted. Custom demand makes a separate cohort. |
| Products and stock | Configured synthetic two-product batches | Configured generic product/batch | Configured generic product/batch | Exact commercial SKU, packaging verification, current inventory and authorized release remain unresolved. Ten doses/vial is configured here, not a universal rule. |
| Roads | Frozen motor 25/45 min and bicycle 65 min | Frozen main/alternate motor 55/60 min | Frozen 25/30/40/35 min plus cross-village 20 min | No surveyed geometry or all-weather opening evidence. Keep schematic connectivity. New motor times are conditional estimates from synthetic km / transferred modeling speed. |
| Household access | Frozen near/remote 20/40 min, 36/34 obligations | Frozen 20/50 min; delayed remote 65 min, 25/25 obligations | Frozen 20/40 min, 130/130 obligations | No local travel/acceptance survey. New conditional round trips are 22.5/45 min in C1/C3, 22.5/52.5 in C2, before explicit delay multipliers. Synthetic 60-minute limit remains labelled. |
| Staff/equipment/budget | Existing synthetic pool | Existing synthetic pool | Four existing driver/vehicle, local vaccinator and custody teams | Demand changes never create staff, stock, vehicles, kits or funds. Actual qualification/readiness/route opening cannot be estimated into authorization. |
| Cost | DEMO_UNITS | DEMO_UNITS | DEMO_UNITS | Reuse explicit scenario cost rules and reconcile components. UNICEF FCA/LTA USD prices and old INR annual models are context only; landed costs and currency transfer are unknown. |

## Reused evidence before new research

The supplied D1-D6 revised report, assumptions/source register, archive inventory and primary-source cache were inspected. R03 supports planning roles and a CCP-to-session benchmark, separately from household travel. R04/R05 provide exact published carrier configurations and laboratory test conditions. R06 is a versioned 2026 FCA/LTA reference price table, not a delivered Jharkhand quote. R07 explains product/coolant-specific equipment selection. R09 is historical Jharkhand NFHS-5 context for its stated age/indicator definition; it does not generate village demand. R10 population transcriptions retain their original-table verification gap. R12/R13 remain direct-fuel methodology; there is no net lifecycle-emission claim. R11/R15/R16/R17 inaccessible/partial statuses are preserved, not promoted to inspected full documents.

WHO BK-FF-VC-1.6L page 1 states 1.60 L, 3.40 kg empty, 6.40 kg fully loaded, four 0.4 L packs and a laboratory cold-life test at +43 C. AVC-46 capacity fields differ (2.50 L versus gross 2.46 L), requiring configuration clarification. Neither published device is asserted to be the actual KIT_DEMO. Laboratory cold life is not substituted for product-specific field protection. UNICEF prices exclude unpriced local freight, tax, procurement mapping and installation. No arbitrary percentage creates a local quotation.

## Bounded gap search and estimation method

The follow-up search focused on a transferable travel-method basis and case/facility identity, with targeted source excerpts. It did not restart the entire project literature search. Official Census indexed metadata distinguishes Gudri block/village, but direct retrieval failed; the source register records that limit. The district health overview did not establish any of these delivery assignments. There is still no supported geographic road map for the demo; no invented roads are drawn over real geography.

Two consequential conditional estimates are separately versioned in `estimate-ledger.json`:

1. E01 uses the AccessMod user manual’s generic 20 km/h track/trail modeling example with the frozen synthetic road lengths. `minutes = 60 × km / speed`. It is conditional on the hypothetical connection and length, with no hidden terrain/season correction. The selected 15/25 values are team stress assumptions around that example, not observed bounds.
2. E02 uses generic flat-walking examples at 3/4/5 km/h with explicit assumed one-way distances: near 0.75 km; remote 1.75 km for C2, 1.50 km for C1/C3. Base 4 km/h gives `round trip = 2 × km × 60 / speed`. No measured household distance, slope, mobility, waiting or acceptance distribution is claimed.

The published example and the assumed transfer/distance are separate attributes. These are useful conditional competition scenarios, not empirical estimates of actual local operating conditions. The two datasets have different inputs and independently recomputed, audited outputs. C1’s new shared-corridor closure applies to motor and bicycle main edges; the alternate connection remains a separate availability assumption. The frozen fixture’s original motor-only closure is retained and disclosed.

## What sensitivity changes

Actual V2.7 runs cover 9 new case/scenario pairs and 7 focused C2 travel-delay sensitivities. At the estimated base, C2 still has 25 remote obligations unserved. Walking 5 km/h enables 50/50 planned tasks in the tested condition; 3/4 retain the remote gap. Motor 15 km/h leaves 0/50 planned in that condition. A combined adverse test links both slowdowns explicitly, without independence or probability claims. No cost-saving benefit is asserted for a lower-service plan. C3 estimated references remain search-incomplete at the configured limit.

The algebraic C2 remote travel screen crosses 60 minutes at 4.55 km/h under the assumed 1.75 km and ×1.3 delay. That screen is not a whole-plan feasibility proof. The actual low/base/high runs, policy comparisons, costs and remaining group gaps are retained in `sensitivity.json` and the full review package.

## Completion versus unknowns

Completed: preserved frozen references; separately versioned/recomputed conditional dataset; input provenance; actual local-browser V2.7 custom computation; demand/resource/cohort binding; original audits; local Python runner and re-audited import; stale-result removal; bounded sensitivity and failure/partial cases.

Remaining unknown: current village demand, exact supply assignments, surveyed road connectivity, seasonal timed trips, household access distribution, actual product packaging, authorized stock release/expiry, staff qualifications/readiness and complete local prices. These do not prevent disclosed illustrative computation; they prevent claiming a verified operational deployment.

Publication is pending authorization. No public site, paid compute service, outside organization contact or private record transmission was introduced in this task.